November 01, 2004

The celling of the president

Salon's War Room reports:

Zogby has just released a path-breaking presidential poll conducted exclusively on mobile phones. And the winner is John Kerry by a landslide margin of 55 to 40 percent. Jimmy Breslin and others have been complaining that traditional telephone polls just aren’t capturing the new voter realities, because so many young people are only reachable by their Nokias. If the Zogby poll, which was conducted in partnership with Rock the Vote, is a reliable indicator, Tuesday night might not be such a drawn-out, nail-biter after all.

Man, it'd be nice if the big story from this election were how our system of political polling is flawed. I mean, four years ago, polls before the election were showing Bush with a fairly solid lead over Gore, and Gore ended up edging Bush in the popular vote. Presumably the people who were undercounted then are still being undercounted this year.

Read the full report on the Zogby poll results here.

Posted by Francis at 01:27 PM | TrackBack

I'd sure love to believe these numbers, but this poll was conducted among people who had *signed up* for "Rock the Vote Mobile" -- meaning, they were interested enough in "Rock the Vote" efforts to give their phone numbers out. I'm honestly surprised that it's not more of a landslide for Kerry, and I'm not at all surprised to hear that only 2.3% of those polled "did not plan to vote" -- duh.

Still, it's interesting stuff, and points to an underpolled group of voters, at least some of whom must live in swing states!

Posted by: Rose at November 1, 2004 04:04 PM

There was an article on Zogby in The New Yorker recently. I especially liked his 'Tin Man vs. Scarecrow' poll.

Posted by: Saphir at November 2, 2004 09:22 AM